Stats: A case for the defence...

Here are statistics of the goals conceded per game of various centre back pairings that have been in use throughout the season. Obviously, defending the goal isn't just down to the CB pair, but the whole team and its setup. However, these stats do provide a good insight into what works best at our defence's core:

Collins/O'Brien - 2 goals average conceded per game (5 games)
Bromby/Bruce - 2 (only played one game as a partnership)
Collins/Bruce - 1.75 (7 games)
Collins/Naylor - 1.67 (9 games)

O'Brien/Bruce - 1.11 (9 games started as a partnership, plus 10 minutes of one game where Bruce came off injured)

This does indeed confirm what most Leeds fans see as our best partnership - Bruce and Andy O'Brien, conceding by far the least when paired up out of all the other pairings that Simon has tried throughout the season so far. Also of note is that when Bruce and Andy have started together, we've only lost one and encouragingly that was the Arsenal cup tie last week - where the third goal may arguably have been better dealt with had O'Brien not been forced off leaving Bromby to deal poorly with for van Persie's free header. Worryingly when played alongside Collins, Bruce seems to lack the presence of O'Brien alongside him, the older head. This combined with the unquestionable fact that O'Brien is a better defence than Collins means the next most feasible partnership regarding Grayson's preferences of Collins/Bruce leaks far more goals. The Bromby/Bruce partnership hasn't had enough chance to show yet. Worryingly, when O'Brien is paired with Collins we have conceded 2 per game average.

Oddly, O'Brien has the worst clean sheet percentage among our centre backs:

Clean sheets per game started:

Bromby: 1/2=50%
Bruce: 5/18=27.8%%
Collins: 5/22=22.7%
Naylor: 2/9=22.2
O'Brien: 2/14=14.3%

The average goals per game statistic of around one though, means this is largely irrelevant considering our current goalscoring form as you'd currently fancy us to score at least one anyway.

Discounting "anomalies"

Four times this season we've conceded four goals or more with the following CB partnerships:

Barnsley: 2-5 Naylor/Collins
Preston: 4-6 Bruce/Collins
Cardiff: 0-4 Bruce/Collins

These games were all played using the 4-4-2 system that didn't work so well for us earlier in the season, as we were adapting to the League, as well as coinciding with chopping and changing as we strived for consistency and better performances.

If these 15 goals are discounted from Collins' record, his goals conceded per game shoots down to 1.26, Bruce's would also decrease further. It's fair to discount these results as the side now is so far from how it was back then in terms of consistency of personnel and performances. They were all bad team performances and couldn't come down to just the CB pairings. Many individual errors came from many players, so to count these solely against Collins would be unfair - although he did have a hand in some of the errors himself. The formation definitely had something to do as the 4-5-1 enabled us to better adapt to the Championship when used later on.

This would perhaps make some case for Collins in regards some criticism he seems to get around the web, myself included at times. The partnership of Bruce and O'Brien however would still be far and away the best if these anomalies were discounted for each centre back as exceptional(ly bad) performances as a team.

Two of these performances also had Higgs in goal. We all know Higgs is no Kasper and no matter how you look at it, it would be unquestionable we'd be likely to concede more with Shane in goal instead of Kasper.

Complimenting abilities

The way the centre backs play alongside each other is also worth noting. With Bruce/O'Brien you have two capable players in the air, especially O'Brien positionally and with his height along with Bruce who is quicker than the rest and good in the tackle. O'Brien's positional sense compliments Bruce's willingness to get stuck in and put a foot in, providing some cover. Bruce seems to benefit hugely from the experience and positioning of O'Brien when he's in the side. The Pompey game reminded us all how much O'Brien adds to the defence with his own ability and the confidence he instills around him. Michalik was like this at his time at the club, and Marques, they benefited from having a convincing partner who they had faith in playing alongside them - Naylor at the time.

Another example of the centre backs needing to have complimentary abilities to succeed is the poor showing of the O'Brien/Collins partnership - ten goals conceded over five games. They're too similar to be effective together - both good in the air, but lacking some mobility and prowess in the tackle, especially in the sense of Collins who seems to be our best bet at marking the oppositions "big man" up top.

Consistency of team selection

One argument for the case of Neil Collins is the fact he's never played more than three games in a row having the same three players as part of the back four alongside him. This would no doubt be of hinderance. The settled Connolly, O'Brien, Bruce and McCartney back four with Schmeichel in goal coincided with the unbeaten run we've just been through goes some way to backing that argument up. Although, it could be said the addition of McCartney and Andy O'Brien did more to ensure a better defensive display during this period.

Benefits of the 4-2-3-1/4-5-1 

As Simon brought in O'Brien, he and Bruce went on to benefit from a change in the whole set up of the team that meant more cover was provided for the back line as a unit. First of all, Howson was allowed free reign in the hole. Kilkenny and Faye originally were then drafted in to sit in front of the back line, and later Johnson in place of Faye when he adapted more successfully to his current role - picking forward runs more carefully and learning to sit deeper more naturally.

This formation largely halted the early season trouble we had with teams steamrollering us with pacy counterattacks, running straight at the heart of our defence - which is the hardest thing to deal with (Commons typified this issue best in our opening game of the season with Green for Derby).

Sum-up

What can be taken from this then is that it is a combination of a change of formation, consistency and the introduction of Andy O'Brien that seems to have coincided with our recent good run. What would be interesting to see is can we cope in a 4-4-2 in the future with O'Brien in the side, and perhaps Johnson instructed to sit deeper whilst Howson breaks forward/we get another deep lying player on loan. What you can't conclude though from this is that a particular pairing is the be all and end all of performances defensively as the make up of the rest of the team, including full backs especially would have a say - as well as obviously the way the 11 is set up to play tactically.

Obviously, defensive performance will depend on opposition faced - i.e. high scoring Cardiff as opposed to Scunthorpe varies in the amount of defensive work the side would have to do. 

This article just shows an overview of our defensive performances on average throughout the season so far - discounting the most obvious anomalies that have occurred this season. The three main partnerships have a sample size of games played big enough to include a fair spread of games against a mixture teams at either end of the table - a representative section of the standard of games played throughout the season.

Disclaimer, these stats are largely sourced from forums, and not my own work - sad though I am I wouldn't stoop to calculating all of these stats myself!