Promotion Contenders: Nottingham Forest and Billy "Job Done" Davies

Last night saw ever more ominous Nottingham Forest leapfrog Leeds as they accelerated towards the automatic places, still with at least a game in hand on the top six, and two in hand on us and Swansea. They climbed to fifth after beating Bristol City 1-0 on Tuesday night with a deflected shot from defender Luke Chambers.

Davies spent most of the early part of the season putting poor performances down to lack of "ambition", complaining at his board and at not having money to spend, despite possessing a strong squad that he led to a Play-Off semi-final defeat the season before - the club, for example, having spent sums such as £2.65M on Robert Earnshaw, who's scored only four this season and failed to consistently and completely justify that price tag since joining in 2008 - and has forced Davies into further striking reinforcements this season. In the summer of 2009 he spent £4M - Chris Gunter was £1.75M from Spurs that summer... Several of his current squad are on reportedly high wages: Earnshaw, Guy Moussi and Nathan Tyson as well as defender Kelvin Wilson. All are out of contract in the Summer. Forest's spending since their Championship return during 08 and 09 has forced them to cut back, signing no permanent deals in January or the previous summer, and having to offer reduced terms to the above in a last effort to keep them. Forest players asked to take wage cuts.

One former colleague said of Davies:

This is a man who "wants to manage the world XI, and yesterday".

His targets (in January first, then latterly some of them again in the summer) were Nicky Shorey from Aston Villa, Victor Moses of Crystal Palace, Swansea City midfielder Darren Pratley and Gareth Bale who was at the time a Spurs reserve team player. Clearly, these are all ambitious signings for a Championship side, especially one that had already spent big in the past few seasons and are currently needing a little more control.

Moses was chased by Premier League clubs, Pratley - Swansea's key player with over a year on his contract at the time, Shorey on massive wages and clearly Bale was optimistic as Harry Redknapp likely knew what he had to offer in the near future. He also targeted Peter Whittingham, Cardiff's top scoring midfielder from the previous season and probably their most prized asset along with Jay Bothroyd - thus no doubt commanding a massive fee if Cardiff were to sell him. 

Clearly, Davies' above demands were unrealistic to expect from a Championship board, particularly after spending around £7M in transfer fees alone combining Calderwood's and latterly his efforts in the windows in 2008 and 2009 (this without parachute payments of course, as Boro had for this summer's £8M spree). He seems to want to "have his cake and eat it" and in the modern game, which is hemorrhaging money from clubs bidding to get into the "big time" fast, this can be very dangerous (read Cardiff's financial issues with Ridsdale and their Summer's takeover and also QPR - who lost £19M in 2009's financial year).

He claimed: "Other teams are spending (in reference to the 2010 summer window), you can see their intentions. Now we want to see this club show their intentions." 

If he and the club had spent more wisely in the past, perhaps he would have been able to bring players in and may have been able to keep hold of James Perch, whose move sparked his fury as he was sold before he was told, and before a direct replacement for him had been brought in. They have a remarkably generous Chairman who's funded a lot of spending from his own pocket, and only the past year has he tightened the purse strings. Forest Chairman Doughty's Spending 2008 which details him having put £45M of his own money into the club - and no doubt a lot more in the two years since. Most recently, Davies was allowed to table a bid for Millwall's Steve Morison that totaled £2M. This kind of spending, particularly for Leeds fans of the post administration era of realism, sounds completely alien, and I'm glad. Our club is more financially sound and self sustaining. Spending such fees on Championship standard players seems absurd when you can compete well by spending a fraction of the amount, although Davies completely lacks this portion managerial nous, despite his high regard for his own abilities.

Davies is a manager with a massive ego and sense of self worth, claiming to be Preston's all time most successful manager and he riled Leeds fans by posting "Job Done" on a wall at Deepdale after they managed a 1-1 draw at Elland Road in the Play Off final first leg. They'd gone 568 minutes at Deepdale without conceding but Leeds to inspiration from Davies' cocky and premature comments and managed to put two past them without reply, going through 3-1 on aggregate to an ultimately ill fated final.

All is far more quiet though now on the Davies front as his Nottingham Forest side have won seven of their last eight games and are romping their way to promotion it seems. He's recently been able to reinforce upfront with Marcus Tudgay on the relative cheap (£400k), who was unhappy and becoming ineffectual in League One with Sheffield Wednesday - but has been previously capable and effective in this division. He clearly has a strong squad, but despite their massive marquee spending on strikers such as Dexter Blackstock (who was admittedly unluckily injured long-term in late November) for a seven figure fee in 2009, Earnshaw for that £2.65M in 2008 they aren't firing up front this season - with mainstay academy midfielder McGugan top scorer on 11.

On current trends, Forest should fly to automatic promotion and I think they're odds on to finish in the top two, maybe with the addition of a face or two in the remainder of January. The money spent hasn't always been spent wisely, but success is coming and seemingly the risk is bringing reward - if they do indeed manage to make a top division return. I just hope we don't make it easy for Davies and his promotion hopefuls at Elland Road when we come to face them later this season.

In no way am I envious though. I don't want to spend £1.75M on Chris Gunter, or the extraordinary money they have on Robert Earnshaw. That's unjustifiable at this level for most, even for a team of Leeds' and Forest's relative power. Shrewd business appeals to me more and more. Becchio highlights Forest's gluttony at Earnshaw's purchase (despite being different players in style, goals speak for themselves), Snoddy makes £1M for Majewski look excessive... the measured approach suits football at this level. Even Warnock has cut back at what probably is the world's richest club based on Mittal's fortune, QPR. He's top of the league after adding clever loans and frees, much improved on last season's effort (although admittedly he inherited a lot of quality in the squad that was bought for a fair bit of money). Success doesn't need to be an unending stream of million pound transfers. Success can be achieved with moderation.

As any fan though, I would welcome the odd flaunting of cash - but not as often as other sides do, and not on players that wouldn't either be capable of either dramatically and consistently improving the squad and justifying their fee, or on those incapable of stepping up - as Earnshaw showed at Derby. The kind of player worth spending an amount on is Adel Taarabt (who at £1M looks a cracking bargain) who can clearly go on to play at the next level - and is someone who would perform and improve any squad in this division - as his goals and assists have shown for QPR throughout this season in particular, since his permanent move from Spurs, as well as throughout last season.

I'm far from saying I'm against Leeds going out and showing the money. What I'm saying is that I don't want to see us show it so often, and on players that have commanded such high amounts in transfer fees, when consistent performance and ability to step to a higher level is lacking. Value for money is more important than amount spent, especially if the whole squad is to be perpetually improved - as is necessary in football: "If you aren't moving forward, you're falling back."

Realistically, having spent three seasons in League One and not having a benefactor as Forest clearly do, we can't expect to be spending like its going out of fashion and, in the end, plunging millions in, when quality and results are available at much less cost as we've proved with the players mentioned above... Gradel too. Blackpool have shown this recently (with groundwork laid by Simon Grayson who spent as wisely there as he tries to here), as well as Swansea, Norwich and Watford this season - all vying for either playoff places or automatic promotion on modest budgets. You don't need to spend such amounts to succeed at this level - hence why I'd see it as a waste - Forest haven't yet seen the results but now it is coming together for them but there's nothing to say for definite that if you spend you succeed, hence the risk. It depends on players bought and managerial ability, but admittedly eventually with enough money spent, success becomes more and more likely - but not inevitable.

Its spending in fact that has led to Forest struggling financially with significant financial losses:

"We are, after all, talking about a man who is willing to run the football club at a loss of £5m to, as revealed today, £13.4m a season – that he personally finances."

"Were he to walk away, the landscape would be bleak on the south side of the Trent.
Without his level of financial backing, Forest would not be bidding for players such as Darren Pratley or Peter Whittingham in the first place, whether their efforts were successful or not."

Paul Taylor: Forest would be lost without Doughty, but they need their fans too

Forest's Debt to Doughty

60M Owed to Doughty

Were the benefactor to suffer financial issues with his interests outside of the club, the club would therefore be at risk. It's a dangerous method of running a football club - especially one that isn't immediately as attractive as a Chelsea or City were to their billionaire benefactors, for whatever reason. We've had a "fan" (I use that term loosely) in Ridsdale throw the money around and personally, I wouldn't want to see it again. Although Forest are showing success can be achieved this way, I'd much rather our club take it more patiently and within our means. It is paramount we never again get into a situation of unsustainable debt that's haunted us in our recent past.

Gambling is far too dangerous - of all the teams in the Football League, we should know this.