A cobbled together response to some annoyed Forest fans, Championship value for money and how Leeds should behave after hard lessons...
To start with, a major issue caused to Forest fans was them mistaking me for saying a couple of their players aren't worth their fees and they aren't of good quality at this level. This isn't the case. My point was why go out and spend £2.65M on a striker (who yes, will get goals) when there are, season upon season, bargains to be had? (If the manager/scouting/recruitment has the nous to spot them). More value can be had for the money and this is how I want Leeds to play it (Forest can do as they please).
My point against the justification of Earnshawby previous commenters
In the same summer Forest spent that amount on Earnshaw, Jay Bothroyd cost Cardiff just £350k for example. There are many other bargains (I know these come about in different periods of time but every season, there are such buys to be had):
[Goals p/game at current club and goals this season included for overall effectiveness as well as their current form.]
2008: Jay Bothroyd to Cardiff £350k - averages a goal every 2.7 games there and also acts as a target man, and aerial presence. 2010/11: 14 league goals, 5 assists
2009: Danny Graham to Watford £200k possibly rising to £500k - goal every 2.4 games for them. 2010/11: 15 league goals, 4 assists.
2010: Scott Sinclair to Swansea. £500k rising to £1M on future success (rumoured promotion) - 1 in 2 for them and only 21 - great potential to go onto a higher level - will far exceed amount paid when sold. 2010/11: 12 league goals
2010: Billy Sharp to Donny. £1.15M (after 09/10 loan) - a goal every 1.6 games. 2010/2011: 12 league goals.
2010: Adel Taarabt to QPR (after 09/10 loan) £600k rising to £1M rumoured on promotion - from a midfielder 1 goal in 2 for QPR. 2010/2011: 13 league goals, 11 assists...
2009/10:Max Gradel to Leeds (after loan) 200k (reported) - winger, many apps from bench last season. a goal every 4. 2010/2011: 9 league goals, 3 assists.
2008: Luciano Becchio to Leeds £100-200k (rumoured - undisclosed) - Target man, assist maker. 1 goal in 2 ... In the Championship 2010/11: 24 apps 13 goals 7 assists. 1 goal every 1.8 games.
Hopefully, this illustrates the point I was aiming to make to some Leeds fans who sometimes clamour for the "reassuring" big money signings, the marquee players.
The fee paid for Robert Earnshaw alone is roughly the same amount as five of the top six current Championship top scorers costs combined (I'll discount Commons who left to Derby). Surely this shows a fee of that magnitude, at this level, is completely unnecessary and wasteful?
You do get a good player who'll score for £2.65M but why spend such an amount (roughly the amount a team receives in TV money and royalties for the Championship) on one player, when you could improve the squad instead with an equally good if not better striker, and add maybe two more top quality Championship players?
Of course transfers are circumstantial, but bargains are always there to be found - you cannot deny this.
Also, Forest have got bargains in their ranks - "Moussi 300k, Camp 100k, Tudgay £500k, Wilson £300k, Morgan Free, Chambers £200k, Anderson £400k. Cohen £500k. All bargains worth more than we spent." It is far from every player bought that such outlay is seen, though they still live beyond sustainably.
The Billy Davies slant - and why I made a point of Earnshaw and Gunter - as well as the club's overall financial state.
Importantly to my previous article I mentioned that Davies was "unrealistic" to expect signings such as the following due to the money that Forest had spent the two seasons, and the massive losses they run at:
Nicky Shorey from Aston Villa, Victor Moses of Crystal Palace, Swansea City midfielder Darren Pratley and Gareth Bale, Peter Whittingham.
Davies said: "Other teams are spending (in reference to the 2010 summer window), you can see their intentions. Now we want to see this club show their intentions."
Davies clearly has no realism. I said "unrealistic", it is the truth. Expecting a Chairman to invest in expensive players relative to the rest of the division, completely unsustainably and further to £7-8M spending on transfer fees alone in 2008 and 09 combined, was ridiculous. The Chairman in 2008 was detailed as ploughing a total of £45M into the club and no doubt a lot more since as operating losses have ranged from £5M a few years back to £13M in the most recent financial year (which is huge at this level).
Forest, I have read, have struggled at left back to bring in a player of sufficient calibre. Perhaps if money had been used a little more carefully in the past, then some may have been available. For example Gunter. Yes, very good player and could arguably step up - but at £1.75M means spending has to be restricted elsewhere. A possible comparable transfer is Stuart Parnaby this season - loan and free in summer and a player who's done okay in the Premier League. Obviously this wasn't available at the time of Gunter's arrival but similar deals are likely to have been around. The money spent previously has obviously meant the club had to restrict Davies this season and past January, and he's not been able to strengthen as he may have liked at left back and possibly elsewhere. It can be dangerous to focus a lot of money on single players, at the detriment of the squad both short, and long term. (Obviously not always the case, however).
Why I brought up Forest's financial and spending policy in reference to Leeds
Firstly, Forest are of note to Leeds, as they are currently a comparable force in the league and a similar sort of club in this division. Secondly, Earnshaw was a good illustrator of some spending in this division that I deem unnecessary and don't want to see happen at Leeds. Thirdly, it is of immediate note to Leeds that Forest's spending on fees: large; or what can be seen as "bargain", has contributed significant financial issues off the pitch - which we do not want to see again at Leeds.
Even Forest's apparent bargain fees are pretty alien to Leeds at this current moment. We have signed 12 players I think this season. McCormack and Collins rumoured to be around £300k each, O'Brien a small fee as he was out of contract at Bolton in the summer and Alex Bruce, another fee around £200k. And so far on this, we've got into the playoffs and done remarkably so far.
We live within our budgets and our means and make a profit. If Forest's chairman chooses to bankroll their club then no problem, but its not what I want to see happen at our club. It certainly isn't sustainable or sound in business terms and is a large gamble - anything could happen in his external business interests (his source of income) that means he needs to cut back at Forest/he needs to pull out or possibly sell - which would be hard with the club losing up to £13M a year.
Admittedly, extra security is added by having such a benefactor/fan at the helm and being able to outlay this money against one man's loan i.e. he isn't going to ask for it to be repaid at a time when the club's in jeopardy, but there are still large risks associated with running a club this way as mentioned above.
This doesn't mean I wouldn't want to see Leeds spend, far from it!
"If you don't move forward, you fall behind". This is of course true in football. I would like larger sums of money to be spent (every fan does), but only comparatively modest amounts and not in high frequency, on quality that is going to improve the squad consistently and dramatically - perhaps being able to step up. Players like Camp, Snodgrass, Becchio, Scott Sinclair, Taarabt, Gradel are all fantastic signings that offer value and doesn't prevent spending elsewhere in the longer term, which are both key points.
Forest's gamble of living beyond their means, though, looks set to pay off, and their losses will be less significant as a result...
Even so, I don't want Leeds to risk it again - there are no guarantees to succeed by spending more than the club can afford - although it can accelerate success.
I said I thought Forest would go up this season and I'm in no way bitter. I was expecting 10th before this season started so Leeds are performing above my expectations, and I knew Forest were strong enough to be up there in the mix... So good luck to them, money has been spent and rewards are being reaped but I don't want to see Leeds operate unsustainably again, we've seen it before with disastrous consequences.
By no means are Forest the worst in terms of spending either, (see Cardiff and QPR's recent efforts... but they're a good barometer of what a similar team in the division is doing in relation to us.
I may be being a tad hypocritical harping on about spending after the Leeds of the 2000's, but I'm using the above as an example to show us why we shouldn't fall into the beyond the means trap again, even if success may be accelerated - and even if its possible for Forest by having a benefactor. Having a benefactor though doesn't mean the club is sensibly and viably run as a business - which Leeds need to take much more care of.
Summary
So to sum up - the original article was mainly getting at what I've tried to illustrate above. I was never saying any Forest player was useless, or incapable. I was stating that I want Leeds to go about getting more value for their/our pound by being more shrewd and watching a bargain come good. In Grayson, I believe we've got the manager to see that happen - he did it at Blackpool getting them out of L1 and setting major groundwork in their promotion squad for Holloway. Massive spending isn't necessary in this league. Norwich, Swansea, Watford and Blackpool are all proof of that.
After early movement by Simon securing Andy O'Brien on the eve of the window, beating off Cardiff in the process, and bringing back McCartney for a second spell, all has gone quiet on the transfer front. (Surprising for Leeds as the papers are usually full of it...) Although good additions, Leeds fans are pressuring for more - with the Arsenal FA Cup money burning a hole in the collective Leeds United pocket.
It's been said all season but we still want that battling, tackling, quick midfielder with a bit of passing ability and added quality and now Hughesy's gone, Grayson's said we're in the market for a Hughes replacement - an improvement in quality, though surely not in passion. It looks unlikely we'll add another top quality central defender to our squad with four front line centre backs seemingly at the forefront for Grayson - pairing No.1 O'Brien/Bruce, pairing No.2 (Aerial threats) O'Brien/Collins, pairing No.3 (in event of no O'Brien) Bruce/Bromby. There is an argument that should Becchio get injured we are a bit thin on target men, with Paynter unable to fully show us what he can do in Luciano's absence. There's very little chance of Simon adding another striker to our already bulging ranks up top.
So then, who are the number one "realistic" targets that have been mentioned a few times throughout December and January? These are players for one reason or another I think are the most likely and best players available in each position we should be looking to fill before the window slams shut on Monday evening.
CM - The "better Kilkenny" option rather than the all out gritty defensive midfielder
I've not heard very strong rumours that have persisted in the press for any time about any players that fill the gritty category really.
Michael Johnson
He's a Leeds fan and has stated he wants to come and play for the club (Johnson eyes Leeds switch). He's been out with bad injuries for the best part of two seasons, after bursting onto the scene in 2008. His attitude was in question during this difficult time for him but he impressed Roberto Mancini enough in summer to have faith in him and he's worked his way back to fitness and training - losing weight and finding his way back to the player everyone wanted when he first emerged in the Premier League. City fans were impressed with his reserve team return, one comment even suggesting he would offer the current City side something they don't have:
"The lad has been working hard ans already looks far fitter than the last time he tried to return."
"Johnson (at his best) brings something to the team which the other midfielders don't really have in their locker. A genuine box to box midfielder who knits together the attacking play. When Elano and Ireland were getting a lot of attention, a lot of that was due to Johnson very smoothly creating space for them with one touch passes and good movement. Here's hoping he can deliver that again."
" I never realised how much of the play he set up, how much he helped us keep the ball. He was always in space, had great vision, made lots of simple but really effective passes out to the wings and that season with Sven we played so much better with him than without him and if he didn't get seriously injured we would not have fell away as badly as we did that season."
Annoyingly, though Sven is rumoured to be interested in him as well, and being his ex managerand with Leicester loaning for fun he could be on his way there. Sven also instated Mancini as his captain at Sampdoria and Assistant Manager at Lazio so if we're being realistic there is only one place he would probably end up in the Championship... Clutching at straws here but Johnson came through at the same time as Schmeichel so hopefully Kasper's been in his ear....
I get really frustrated at Kilkenny, although he definitely improves the side when he's in it with a bit of composure on the ball. His lack of any pace, lack of willingness to bring the ball forward and poor aerial and tackling ability or even ability to track a man grate on me. I also believe the main benefit from him playing is Howson being freed to play further up the pitch.
What's also worth noting is that if Mancini is willing to loan him out, moneybags City would no doubt pay the vast majority of his wages - likely seeing him getting competitive game time as more important.
He'd be committed being a fan and cut above in terms of ability - box to box, an ability to tackle (any ability in this respect is better than what Kilkenny offers), passing, vision, goalscoring, pace... we can dream...!
The Hughes replacement
Competition for the right back slot, as currently only Crowe (who Grayson clearly doesn't rate to keep hold of at this level) is the only backup to Connolly who has so far impressed. Bromby can play there though, and at a push Bruce, although it would be nice to have a recognised RB come in. Hughes' left back backup role is no longer needed with the return of Parker and Johnson's ability to fill in if need be.
Stuart Parnaby
"Birmingham City defender Stuart Parnaby is keen on a loan move to Leeds United.
The Daily Mail says Parnaby came into the squad for the recent FA Cup win over Millwall and played well.
That caught the eye of a few scouts who have reported back to their clubs and Leeds now look eager to take him on loan.
Parnaby hopes to talk to manager Alex McLeish today to see if he will let him go in the hope that he can play a part in Leeds’ promotion push."
Good quality, proven - did well at Boro in the Premier League and has been good for Birmingham in this League, a good age - at 28, and apparently willing to come and help us out. He's also out of contract in the summer and would be an good signing on a free transfer - it smacks of a Grayson deal this one.
The curve ball. The one that surely won't happen... The CB position I don't think is top of the agenda but...
Jonathan Woodgate
Simon was down to watch a behind closed doors game against QPR at Spurs Lodge the other week and Woodgate impressed Redknapp - although didn't impress Warnock, who has seemingly pulled out of a possible move, favouring Danny Shittu who they managed to sign on a free today (a very good signing by the way, for nothing). But, after saying he wanted Woodgate to go out on loan on the 24th December, he came out with this last week:
"He needs to stay here and see how he goes and if he’s OK, he can sit down at the end of the season and we’ll give him a new deal for next year."
He also said he'd be mad to loan him out as his contract's up in the summer and it'd be giving away a top class centre back in effect. Don't know why he came out saying he's fit, we want him to go out on loan then...!
If he is available (who knows with Redknapp's contradictory statements...?) he'd definately be worth a go. Spurs may be willing to cover a large proportion of his wages if they do indeed want him to get competitive games in, and therefore may be worth a gamble on our part as his ability can't be sniffed at, at this level - even if not 100% fit. Simon said if the opportunity came about, he'd struggle not to be interested.
What we want...
Whoever it is, we expect movement, and hopefully 2 signings loan or otherwise, not fussed. Looks like it will be loan with Bates coming out saying:
"After all, on February 5 you can start signing people on 93-day loans so this transfer window is a bit over-exaggerated anyway."
Why not just loan them now? You know, to allow them to play in the play-offs should it come to that..? It's never easy with Ken.
Have you heard any persistent rumours? Any realistic player you'd like to see join before the window closes? Please comment!
Leeds' 19 year old left back/left midfielder (no-one knows quite what he'll turn out to be but Grayson seems to see him more as a future winger) has rejoined Oldham after impressing Paul Dickov during his initial 3-month loan deal earlier in the season. Aidy joins until the end of the season, after scoring two goals in five apps, playing as a left midfielder at the club.
This is good news for Aidy. League One is a fairly good standard to enable him to get match experience at and he appears to be showing signs of reasonable development at Oldham. The game time will be a plus for him and hopefully further him as a player ready for a summer training under Grayson's watchful eye. Obviously he'd be hard pressed to get in our current squad with Sam, Watt, Gradel and Johnson all capable of playing down the left and all realistically ahead of him just now. All the best to Aidy.
The Yorkshire Post today reported that the Leeds board intend to press on with planned developments to Elland Road despite missing out on funding from the Football World Cup bid. The World Cup development money, which was to come in the form of a Council loan looked vital to be able to push forward with developing - and was assumed to be tied down to a winning England bid. Chief Executive, Shaun Harvey, and the Leeds board are hoping that the desired loans can be achieved by proposing improvement of Elland Road as a fitting venue for the 2013 Rugby League and 2015 Rugby Union World Cups.
Harvey said, to the YP:
"Missing out on the World Cup was a huge blow and we all felt let down by the goalposts being moved (by FIFA)," he said. "But the key now is making sure that the work we did as a city is not lost.
"We can't lose the impetus that was gained by bidding for the World Cup because if we do then the danger is we may never get this chance again. Work to improve south Leeds and regenerate the area, using
Elland Road as the catalyst, should not just stop because of 22 people making a decision in Zurich.
"Why should they affect the lives of people in Leeds when we have an ability to do something about it?
"To do that, we would encourage the Council to still move forward with these plans as quickly as possible. In that respect, there has been some early dialogue between us. The question is with them now as to how they want to take things forward."
Regarding development prospects and funding he added:
"We are in a position where the development can go forward as soon as funding is arranged.
"We were to receive the support from the Council in terms of a loan. The offer was conditional of getting the 2018 World Cup.
"We would hope that, in view of the benefits the work will bring to the city and south Leeds in particular, the Council will see the benefit of supporting the club's attempts to redevelop the area.
"We need to understand fully where the Council sits in relation to the whole site and their aspirations. The site needs some enabling funding to deal with the real issues."
Leeds City council told the YP:
"We have received a proposal from Leeds United concerning a possible redevelopment of Elland Road. We are currently considering that proposal and will be responding in due course."
Ken Bates has already informed fans that an infill of the East Stand structure is under way will result in the creation of 22 new executive boxes, six new lounges, improved catering and events capacity and a wider East Upper concourse improving match day facilities for fans - all to be added with no impact to the stand's 17,000 seat capacity.
This is the proposed structure to be added to the East Stand side of the ground:
This involves the Club Shop being relocated to the other end of Lowfields Road, and Billy's statue to a position opposite the structure. It encompasses a 2 and 4-star hotel at opposite ends of Lowfields, one where the current shop sits (the taller structure on the left) as well as a shopping arcade to link the two running along the East Stand's length. This structure's planning permission has already accepted by the Council (who also offered monetary support should England have won the bid) when it was first proposed in 2009 as part of the World Cup bid and proposed regeneration of the Beeston area of Leeds, where the ground is of course situated.
Many fans would rather see any funds spent on re-acquiring the ground that costs in the region of £2M a year to rent, which I think I'm right in saying also rises by a percentage each year.
Shaun Harvey has said:
"We can buy Elland Road back from the landlord at any stage due to having an option in the original lease. There are 19 years remaining on that with an option for another 25 on top of that.
"So, it is not a case of how this is going to be done – we know that. It is just a case of the funding being put in place to do it. In relation to that, discussions have been on-going with various individuals for the past 18 months.
"The general banking crisis has not helped, while neither has going into administration (during the summer of 2007) in terms of our credit rating.
"But I feel we are sufficiently far away from that in terms of our trading record (Leeds are on course to post a profit for a third year running) for it not to be a problem to a potential lender. I think they will see beyond that."
Some fans will also despair at Bates focusing on pouring money to something other than visible improvements on the pitch, and there is an argument to that - Premier League money will far exceed and possible profit from a hotel/shopping arcade. On the other hand, Leeds City council will not lend for us to improve the squad. The option is being considered to add these facilities to provide non-match day income, which, if the club have calculated correctly (you'd have thought they have otherwise why go ahead?) then this should provide more benefits than downsides in regards the clubs finances and income - despite a large loan being required at the outset. The Council, I would have thought would provide the money at a comparatively favourable rate.
It is also worth noting Harvey says we are still struggling with credit rating and the ability to receive loans - no bad thing really in my book, the last thing we need is further financial issues as a club. If the Council can, then, come to an arrangement then hopefully the long term benefits of the added income will match and help improve our playing staff - and go further to making the club sustainable, which is becoming increasingly important.Diversification is security and many Premier League clubs already have such projects up and running.
Yorkshire Radio presenter Ben Fry started by asking the chairman if the break between now and the Hull game next Tuesday will help give the players a breather…
Ken Bates: Well I think it does more than that actually. It gives players who may have been carrying niggly knocks 10 days to recover and have more treatment and as you say, generally recharge their batteries before the Hull game. The Hull game is a very important one. We need a win there.
Ben Fry: You mention the Hull game, they’re in reasonable form at the moment having lost only one in 12. It seems like Nigel Pearson’s got them back on track now so I suppose it’s probably a more difficult game than it looks on paper?
KB: Yeah but on the other hand in the reverse order they are looking at us – we’ve only lost one in 14. And we have lost three games away all season which is also a very good performance including of course drawing at Arsenal. So we don’t want to draw at Hull, we want to win. We gave away two points against them earlier in the season and we can’t afford to do that again. It should be a good game, an exciting game, particularly if our boys get back on course.
BF: Now one player who has left Leeds United in the last seven days is Andrew Hughes. He has gone on an 18 month deal to Scunthorpe. Chairman, he seemed to have a special relationship with the fans. They were very disappointed to see him go and of course, while wishing him all the best, he was a special character.
KB: Oh Andy was, as you say, a very special character. I can still remember him after we won promotion last year behaving in a somewhat inappropriate manner but then I’m told my speech was in the same vain so odds are even there. I’m sorry Andy’s gone but we had to look to the future. His contract was up at the end of the season. I don’t think he figured in our plans for next season because all the time we’re looking to strengthen our squad so we can get better players. So when the opportunity came for him to go to Scunthorpe and get him a new contract, we were very pleased for him. We wish him well.
BF: Now just five days left in the transfer window, have you noticed increasing calls from agents and more calls from clubs? Is anybody starting to panic?
KB: Talking to all the people at the club, I don’t think there is any panic anywhere. We have been reviewing our options, watching alternative players play to see how we can improve and if we can improve our team. I don’t want to be taking people just for the sake of taking them on. The other advantage of this break this weekend is that after the Portsmouth game we’ve now had a good six or seven days to review, whether by video or by reports or discussions, the options open to us and what we do and don’t want to do. So I think there is a possibility that the club will be signing one or more players before the end of the month. There’s no panic. After all, on February 5 you can start signing people on 93-day loans so this transfer window is a bit over-exaggerated anyway. But no, there’s no panic. Calls from agents… well they’re probably calling everybody at the same time. We’ve got 18 games to go, Simon knows what he wants and I hope to have discussions with him tomorrow or the day after on what the consensus of opinions is with him and Gwyn Williams and the backroom staff.
Last night saw ever more ominous Nottingham Forest leapfrog Leeds as they accelerated towards the automatic places, still with at least a game in hand on the top six, and two in hand on us and Swansea. They climbed to fifth after beating Bristol City 1-0 on Tuesday night with a deflected shot from defender Luke Chambers.
Davies spent most of the early part of the season putting poor performances down to lack of "ambition", complaining at his board and at not having money to spend, despite possessing a strong squad that he led to a Play-Off semi-final defeat the season before - the club, for example, having spent sums such as £2.65M on Robert Earnshaw, who's scored only four this season and failed to consistently and completely justify that price tag since joining in 2008 - and has forced Davies into further striking reinforcements this season. In the summer of 2009 he spent £4M - Chris Gunter was £1.75M from Spurs that summer... Several of his current squad are on reportedly high wages: Earnshaw, Guy Moussi and Nathan Tyson as well as defender Kelvin Wilson. All are out of contract in the Summer. Forest's spending since their Championship return during 08 and 09 has forced them to cut back, signing no permanent deals in January or the previous summer, and having to offer reduced terms to the above in a last effort to keep them. Forest players asked to take wage cuts.
One former colleague said of Davies:
This is a man who "wants to manage the world XI, and yesterday".
His targets (in January first, then latterly some of them again in the summer) were Nicky Shorey from Aston Villa, Victor Moses of Crystal Palace, Swansea City midfielder Darren Pratley and Gareth Bale who was at the time a Spurs reserve team player. Clearly, these are all ambitious signings for a Championship side, especially one that had already spent big in the past few seasons and are currently needing a little more control.
Moses was chased by Premier League clubs, Pratley - Swansea's key player with over a year on his contract at the time, Shorey on massive wages and clearly Bale was optimistic as Harry Redknapp likely knew what he had to offer in the near future. He also targeted Peter Whittingham, Cardiff's top scoring midfielder from the previous season and probably their most prized asset along with Jay Bothroyd - thus no doubt commanding a massive fee if Cardiff were to sell him.
Clearly, Davies' above demands were unrealistic to expect from a Championship board, particularly after spending around £7M in transfer fees alone combining Calderwood's and latterly his efforts in the windows in 2008 and 2009 (this without parachute payments of course, as Boro had for this summer's £8M spree). He seems to want to "have his cake and eat it" and in the modern game, which is hemorrhaging money from clubs bidding to get into the "big time" fast, this can be very dangerous (read Cardiff's financial issues with Ridsdale and their Summer's takeover and also QPR - who lost £19M in 2009's financial year).
He claimed: "Other teams are spending (in reference to the 2010 summer window), you can see their intentions. Now we want to see this club show their intentions."
If he and the club had spent more wisely in the past, perhaps he would have been able to bring players in and may have been able to keep hold of James Perch, whose move sparked his fury as he was sold before he was told, and before a direct replacement for him had been brought in. They have a remarkably generous Chairman who's funded a lot of spending from his own pocket, and only the past year has he tightened the purse strings. Forest Chairman Doughty's Spending 2008 which details him having put £45M of his own money into the club - and no doubt a lot more in the two years since. Most recently, Davies was allowed to table a bid for Millwall's Steve Morison that totaled £2M. This kind of spending, particularly for Leeds fans of the post administration era of realism, sounds completely alien, and I'm glad. Our club is more financially sound and self sustaining. Spending such fees on Championship standard players seems absurd when you can compete well by spending a fraction of the amount, although Davies completely lacks this portion managerial nous, despite his high regard for his own abilities.
Davies is a manager with a massive ego and sense of self worth, claiming to be Preston's all time most successful manager and he riled Leeds fans by posting "Job Done" on a wall at Deepdale after they managed a 1-1 draw at Elland Road in the Play Off final first leg. They'd gone 568 minutes at Deepdale without conceding but Leeds to inspiration from Davies' cocky and premature comments and managed to put two past them without reply, going through 3-1 on aggregate to an ultimately ill fated final.
All is far more quiet though now on the Davies front as his Nottingham Forest side have won seven of their last eight games and are romping their way to promotion it seems. He's recently been able to reinforce upfront with Marcus Tudgay on the relative cheap (£400k), who was unhappy and becoming ineffectual in League One with Sheffield Wednesday - but has been previously capable and effective in this division. He clearly has a strong squad, but despite their massive marquee spending on strikers such as Dexter Blackstock (who was admittedly unluckily injured long-term in late November) for a seven figure fee in 2009, Earnshaw for that £2.65M in 2008 they aren't firing up front this season - with mainstay academy midfielder McGugan top scorer on 11.
On current trends, Forest should fly to automatic promotion and I think they're odds on to finish in the top two, maybe with the addition of a face or two in the remainder of January. The money spent hasn't always been spent wisely, but success is coming and seemingly the risk is bringing reward - if they do indeed manage to make a top division return. I just hope we don't make it easy for Davies and his promotion hopefuls at Elland Road when we come to face them later this season.
In no way am I envious though. I don't want to spend £1.75M on Chris Gunter, or the extraordinary money they have on Robert Earnshaw. That's unjustifiable at this level for most, even for a team of Leeds' and Forest's relative power. Shrewd business appeals to me more and more. Becchio highlights Forest's gluttony at Earnshaw's purchase (despite being different players in style, goals speak for themselves), Snoddy makes £1M for Majewski look excessive... the measured approach suits football at this level. Even Warnock has cut back at what probably is the world's richest club based on Mittal's fortune, QPR. He's top of the league after adding clever loans and frees, much improved on last season's effort (although admittedly he inherited a lot of quality in the squad that was bought for a fair bit of money). Success doesn't need to be an unending stream of million pound transfers. Success can be achieved with moderation.
As any fan though, I would welcome the odd flaunting of cash - but not as often as other sides do, and not on players that wouldn't either be capable of either dramatically and consistently improving the squad and justifying their fee, or on those incapable of stepping up - as Earnshaw showed at Derby. The kind of player worth spending an amount on is Adel Taarabt (who at £1M looks a cracking bargain) who can clearly go on to play at the next level - and is someone who would perform and improve any squad in this division - as his goals and assists have shown for QPR throughout this season in particular, since his permanent move from Spurs, as well as throughout last season.
I'm far from saying I'm against Leeds going out and showing the money. What I'm saying is that I don't want to see us show it so often, and on players that have commanded such high amounts in transfer fees, when consistent performance and ability to step to a higher level is lacking. Value for money is more important than amount spent, especially if the whole squad is to be perpetually improved - as is necessary in football: "If you aren't moving forward, you're falling back."
Realistically, having spent three seasons in League One and not having a benefactor as Forest clearly do, we can't expect to be spending like its going out of fashion and, in the end, plunging millions in, when quality and results are available at much less cost as we've proved with the players mentioned above... Gradel too. Blackpool have shown this recently (with groundwork laid by Simon Grayson who spent as wisely there as he tries to here), as well as Swansea, Norwich and Watford this season - all vying for either playoff places or automatic promotion on modest budgets. You don't need to spend such amounts to succeed at this level - hence why I'd see it as a waste - Forest haven't yet seen the results but now it is coming together for them but there's nothing to say for definite that if you spend you succeed, hence the risk. It depends on players bought and managerial ability, but admittedly eventually with enough money spent, success becomes more and more likely - but not inevitable.
Its spending in fact that has led to Forest struggling financially with significant financial losses:
"We are, after all, talking about a man who is willing to run the football club at a loss of £5m to, as revealed today, £13.4m a season – that he personally finances."
"Were he to walk away, the landscape would be bleak on the south side of the Trent. Without his level of financial backing, Forest would not be bidding for players such as Darren Pratley or Peter Whittingham in the first place, whether their efforts were successful or not."
Were the benefactor to suffer financial issues with his interests outside of the club, the club would therefore be at risk. It's a dangerous method of running a football club - especially one that isn't immediately as attractive as a Chelsea or City were to their billionaire benefactors, for whatever reason. We've had a "fan" (I use that term loosely) in Ridsdale throw the money around and personally, I wouldn't want to see it again. Although Forest are showing success can be achieved this way, I'd much rather our club take it more patiently and within our means. It is paramount we never again get into a situation of unsustainable debt that's haunted us in our recent past.
Gambling is far too dangerous - of all the teams in the Football League, we should know this.
Leeds' exciting-sounding attacking midfielder impressed at the Copa CentroAmericana as he won the award for Most Valuable Player, after playing a vital role in Honduras' victorious campaign. He scored twice in the group games on the way to the final, and surely Simon Grayson would be looking at Ramon very closely when he returns to the Leeds squad this week as he became only the fourth player after Hunter and Charlton - World Cup, Radebe - African Nations Cup to win a recognised international tournament.
Ramon celebrates his goal against Costa Rica
He showed good technique and the ability to beat players as well as very tidy finishing ability. He'd be hard to fit into our current set up but played "in the hole" off the bench he could cause issues later on in games with his willingness to run into space and at defenders - which we saw in his brief appearances (Cardiff home and Scunny away) so far. His ability to pick a difficult pass impressed me when I watched him against Cardiff, as he hit balls with pace,
30 or so yards to pick out Snodgrass and keep the pace of a break up.
He is a naturally very attacking player, taking up advanced positions (he can actually play off a striker up front, as well as out wide as a winger) and for him to fit into our side, he may need to learn to be more selective in his attacking play, as well as putting in more work defensively and in the tackle if he's to be considered for selection - unless we throw him on when behind with ten minutes left. I reckon he'd offer something a little bit like Max Gradel in the way he runs at defences and can beat players.
Obviously the level of football played at the tournament could be questioned but this piece of individual skill would sit well in any division, as Ramon slips at first but then fires first time, low past the keeper on the turn - a hard piece of technique to pull off.
With the current lack of depth in the centre of midfield, Ramon might just get his chance which will please a few Leeds fans who have been looking forward to seeing him in action.
Ramon signed a contract until the end of the season after being offered an extension by Leeds after his initial short term deal that ran until Christmas. We have an option to extend this deal by a further year.
Midfielder Neil Kilkenny has reiterated his desire to remain at the club after becoming an impressive and key component of the Leeds machine this season. Naturally a deeper lying player he's somewhat of a unique player at the club as the other centre midfielders play naturally higher up the field (or like to). At this moment in time I'd say though not irreplaceable, Neil is a key player and the contract issue needs to be sorted, if nothing just to assure we don't lose a prize asset for nothing... again.
I'd say currently, the Johnson contract is of more importance as he's really come into his own the past couple of months, playing in a deeper role and adapting his game well - contributing with goals when he joins the attack as well. He's more physical than Kilkenny, quicker, an aerial threat and a goal threat. What he has lacked in the past is passing ability and composure, although recently his decision making in his passing has seen improvement.
"Discussions have started, they have been going on for a long time so we'll wait and see when I get back.
"At the end of the day if Leeds want to keep me they know I want to stay, so the ball is in their court."
Robert Snodgrass failed to turn up for a court appearance at Glasgow's Justice of the Peace Court last Thursday after alleged driving offences and there has been a warrant issued in Scotland for his arrest.
"Snodgrass is accused of parking on a pelican crossing in Glasgow's Duke Street on February 28 last year."
The club say it was the result of a misunderstanding and Snoddy is is communication with the authorities.
Here are statistics of the goals conceded per game of various centre back pairings that have been in use throughout the season. Obviously, defending the goal isn't just down to the CB pair, but the whole team and its setup. However, these stats do provide a good insight into what works best at our defence's core:
Collins/O'Brien - 2 goals average conceded per game (5 games)
Bromby/Bruce - 2 (only played one game as a partnership)
Collins/Bruce - 1.75 (7 games)
Collins/Naylor - 1.67 (9 games)
O'Brien/Bruce - 1.11 (9 gamesstarted as a partnership, plus 10 minutes of one game where Bruce came off injured)
This does indeed confirm what most Leeds fans see as our best partnership - Bruce and Andy O'Brien, conceding by far the least when paired up out of all the other pairings that Simon has tried throughout the season so far. Also of note is that when Bruce and Andy have started together, we've only lost one and encouragingly that was the Arsenal cup tie last week - where the third goal may arguably have been better dealt with had O'Brien not been forced off leaving Bromby to deal poorly with for van Persie's free header. Worryingly when played alongside Collins, Bruce seems to lack the presence of O'Brien alongside him, the older head. This combined with the unquestionable fact that O'Brien is a better defence than Collins means the next most feasible partnership regarding Grayson's preferences of Collins/Bruce leaks far more goals. The Bromby/Bruce partnership hasn't had enough chance to show yet. Worryingly, when O'Brien is paired with Collins we have conceded 2 per game average.
Oddly, O'Brien has the worst clean sheet percentage among our centre backs:
The average goals per game statistic of around one though, means this is largely irrelevant considering our current goalscoring form as you'd currently fancy us to score at least one anyway.
Discounting "anomalies"
Four times this season we've conceded four goals or more with the following CB partnerships:
These games were all played using the 4-4-2 system that didn't work so well for us earlier in the season, as we were adapting to the League, as well as coinciding with chopping and changing as we strived for consistency and better performances.
If these 15 goals are discounted from Collins' record, his goals conceded per game shoots down to 1.26, Bruce's would also decrease further. It's fair to discount these results as the side now is so far from how it was back then in terms of consistency of personnel and performances. They were all bad team performances and couldn't come down to just the CB pairings. Many individual errors came from many players, so to count these solely against Collins would be unfair - although he did have a hand in some of the errors himself. The formation definitely had something to do as the 4-5-1 enabled us to better adapt to the Championship when used later on.
This would perhaps make some case for Collins in regards some criticism he seems to get around the web, myself included at times. The partnership of Bruce and O'Brien however would still be far and away the best if these anomalies were discounted for each centre back as exceptional(ly bad) performances as a team.
Two of these performances also had Higgs in goal. We all know Higgs is no Kasper and no matter how you look at it, it would be unquestionable we'd be likely to concede more with Shane in goal instead of Kasper.
Complimenting abilities
The way the centre backs play alongside each other is also worth noting. With Bruce/O'Brien you have two capable players in the air, especially O'Brien positionally and with his height along with Bruce who is quicker than the rest and good in the tackle. O'Brien's positional sense compliments Bruce's willingness to get stuck in and put a foot in, providing some cover. Bruce seems to benefit hugely from the experience and positioning of O'Brien when he's in the side. The Pompey game reminded us all how much O'Brien adds to the defence with his own ability and the confidence he instills around him. Michalik was like this at his time at the club, and Marques, they benefited from having a convincing partner who they had faith in playing alongside them - Naylor at the time.
Another example of the centre backs needing to have complimentary abilities to succeed is the poor showing of the O'Brien/Collins partnership - ten goals conceded over five games. They're too similar to be effective together - both good in the air, but lacking some mobility and prowess in the tackle, especially in the sense of Collins who seems to be our best bet at marking the oppositions "big man" up top.
Consistency of team selection
One argument for the case of Neil Collins is the fact he's never played more than three games in a row having the same three players as part of the back four alongside him. This would no doubt be of hinderance. The settled Connolly, O'Brien, Bruce and McCartney back four with Schmeichel in goal coincided with the unbeaten run we've just been throughgoes some way to backing that argument up. Although, it could be said the addition of McCartney and Andy O'Brien did more to ensure a better defensive display during this period.
Benefits of the 4-2-3-1/4-5-1
As Simon brought in O'Brien, he and Bruce went on to benefit from a change in the whole set up of the team that meant more cover was provided for the back line as a unit. First of all, Howson was allowed free reign in the hole. Kilkenny and Faye originally were then drafted in to sit in front of the back line, and later Johnson in place of Faye when he adapted more successfully to his current role - picking forward runs more carefully and learning to sit deeper more naturally.
This formation largely halted the early season trouble we had with teams steamrollering us with pacy counterattacks, running straight at the heart of our defence - which is the hardest thing to deal with (Commons typified this issue best in our opening game of the season with Green for Derby).
Sum-up
What can be taken from this then is that it is a combination of a change of formation, consistency and the introduction of Andy O'Brien that seems to have coincided with our recent good run. What would be interesting to see is can we cope in a 4-4-2 in the future with O'Brien in the side, and perhaps Johnson instructed to sit deeper whilst Howson breaks forward/we get another deep lying player on loan. What you can't conclude though from this is that a particular pairing is the be all and end all of performances defensively as the make up of the rest of the team, including full backs especially would have a say - as well as obviously the way the 11 is set up to play tactically.
Obviously, defensive performance will depend on opposition faced - i.e. high scoring Cardiff as opposed to Scunthorpe varies in the amount of defensive work the side would have to do.
This article just shows an overview of our defensive performances on average throughout the season so far - discounting the most obvious anomalies that have occurred this season. The three main partnerships have a sample size of games played big enough to include a fair spread of games against a mixture teams at either end of the table - a representative section of the standard of games played throughout the season.
Disclaimer, these stats are largely sourced from forums, and not my own work - sad though I am I wouldn't stoop to calculating all of these stats myself!
Back, then, to the bread and butter again after another cup outing against more glamourous opponents. Knuckling down and getting on with the day job was the order of the day at Fratton Park as Leeds returned to Championship action. Grayson made three changes to the team that walked out at Elland Road against Arsenal on Wednesday night. With O'Brien forced out with a tight hamstring late on in the cup clash, Bromby came in at centre back. Parker was dropped to the bench in favour of McCartney and up front, the most notable change was Becchio returning in place of Billy Paynter.
Despite the lack of an extraordinary result against Arsenal, Leeds seemed in that hangover mode as Pompey had the best of the opening exchanges. Max Gradel stung Ashdown's palms from 25 yards with a dipping strike, but other than that Portsmouth put us under the cosh. Worryingly, the recently confidence-instilling Bruce seemed to lack the presence of O'Brien alongside him and Utaka and the impressive Liam Lawrence were able to put several dangerous balls into the box and cause issue, clearances weren't convincing - the Bromby-Bruce partnership was obviously in its infancy in terms of understanding. McCartney was wasteful in possession at times, once misplacing a pass that forced Bromby into a diving header after Lawrence was gifted a free cross.
We got away with a Greg Halford header from a pinpoint Lawrence corner that cannoned off the bar, and at this point were probably riding our luck, as we'd had very little possession and adventure in terms of forays forward worth any note. Kanu was causing issues, despite being an old head, he still could physically compete with any he came up against, holding up the ball and holding off men, as well as still remarkably showing a burst of pace when needed. His Loctite touch was impressive and his intelligence was a worry. A big ball into the box found his chest after he held off Bruce with ease, and the cushioned chest trap found Nugent who should have done far better, ballooning over on the half volley.
We were over run in midfield and second to every clearing header. A lot of Pompey play came from a big ball from a channel and we would deal with the first ball, but more often than not fail to anticipate the second ball, highly frustrating - we needed a bit more thought about our game in this respect, the Pompey players seemed to anticipate far better than we managed, although with a man extra in midfield when Howson and Watt were caught upfield. It is definately still an issue for us having two deep lying players but having neither of them recognised as a defensive ball winner type, and both liking to get forward. It leaves us short more than is comfortable.
The long ball was a thorn in the side and Nugent was in behind Bruce with another hoick forward, and were it not for a poor touch, he'd have been face to face with Kasper. Their goal was definitely coming, and truthfully we'd been lucky to stem the tide for this long, when after clearing a corner, the long ball was poorly dealt with on the edge of the box with the ball falling straight to a Pompey player who spread it out wide. We'd failed to reorganise quickly enough in midfield from the corner and Lawrence was free to run at Connolly, who was narrow - again from defending the aforementioned corner. He dribbled inside the box, cut outside, drawing three men towards him before teeing up Ward on the edge of the penalty box for an unchallenged effort on goal. A good strike finding the bottom corner. Lawrence was going nowhere and with two men already marking and a crowd blocking the shot on goal, the third (Howson) should have been more concerned and aware of a possible lay-off. He'd just run past Ward into the box. Frustrating, as in the end it was made easier than it probably should have been for Ward. It was a just goal though the way we'd started.
Soon after, Kanu cued a beautiful overlap into the path of Utaka who ran at Connolly. The pace of the run worried Connolly who couldn't dive in inside the penalty area, the shot was wonderfully saved by Schmeichel who tipped the powerful effort across him round the far post, instinctively, from short range. I earmarked Utaka's ability and pace as a worry and he wasn't disappointing. He did surprise me though with a few wayward shots, a side foot a fair way past Kasper's post the poorest of his efforts, when he had time and space. I must admit I had it in my mind he was a better finisher than he showed, only scored 2 though this season I think so that proved my assumptions wrong. (Including his one against us later on in the game...)
What little we did have going forward was made from Gradel's persistance and determination. He nicked the ball of the poor De Laet and popped a ball to Watt, who cut inside and fed Howson on the edge of the D, curling an effort narrowly wide. We did manage a bit of keep ball, the meat of our meaningful possession in the first half, but couldn't find any outlet or end product before half time. A pretty happy set of support - considering the way Pompey had gone at us during the half, pretty much as well as any side had all season thinking back - they're certainly capable, as Forest almost found out last week, were it not for an injury time point-stealer.
We started the second half the brighter after what was no doubt a Simon Grayson "wake-up call" and earned a freekick on the right wing, prime for Snodgrass to curl into the box with some purpose. I for one get sick of seeing us waste free kick and corner opportunities but thankfully this was a good delivery. Deep to the back post on a diagonal, and Howson nipped in round the back of his marker to meet it first time and send it back across the face, for the right place, right time man, Luciano Becchio to slot home. This is what Luciano brings, an instinct of where to be and at what time to receive opportunities. As has happened many times this season after being behind, the goal gave the Whites fans the optimism and the players the confidence, and the dominance that followed made you believe we'd make a victorious comeback again. Snoddy, the tormenter of Dickinson at Elland Road, had been out of the game through our lack of the ball, but finally he had the chance to remind Dickinson of his recurring Elland Road nightmare as Snodgrass got into dangerous positions to deliver into the box, at the ex Leeds loanee's despair.
Johnson showed improved composure on the ball and was providing both long and short, with intelligence. Gradel linked up play along the whole front line as he played off Becchio up top, causing annoyance, buzzing around and aiding attacks on Snoddy's flank nicely - another good showing of willingness and endeavour from Max who continues to look every bit the bargain after we robbed Nigel Pearson of him for 200k last season.
It was Pompey who struck though as we managed to set back our chance of turning the game on its head. Another massive ball caused issues for us as Kanu backed into Bromby and beat him to the header, the flick on bounced in between Connolly and Bruce, and fell to Utaka. Bruce couldn't poke the ball away from Utaka, who made no mistake to slot past Schmeichel. Self destruct button stuff. The ball was allowed to bounce twice, first over Connolly who made a hash of the first bounce with Bruce and second in front of Utaka. The amount of times we've been undone this season by a punt forward from a keeper or centre back is concerning.
Almost as if it was scripted by a Pompey hierarchy, during the spell of continued Leeds pressure post Becchio's goal and in spite of their's, Fratton Park's floodlights went off, due to "external issues" the tannoy announcer kept repeating as if for some reason guilty. It broke up our momentum nicely for them and allowed their players a bit of a rest, Kanu included.
Somma replaced Watt who was the most anonymous of the attacking three in midfield, to offer Becchio a full time striker as a partner, after Gradel's earlier efforts up top. I wanted to see this change before the game and during, as did a fair few others. Somma's impact could not have been any better. Somma's arrival allowed Becchio to reprise his "Beckford's worker" role of old to start and set up the move that led to our second. I just love to see him do this and it just shows what a rounded and capable striker he is. He pops up on the right wing, almost on halfway, plays it into midfield, advances midway into their half, receives the ball back and slides it beautifully to Somma who'd ghosted to the edge of the box. Now although we all know Somma is a fantastic finisher and when he gets a chance you expect it to go in, this one was a bit optimistic I thought. How wrong I was. He hovered between their centre backs nicely, deftly controlled with the right and in a snapshot swung his left boot through it and put it in the bottom corner from the edge of the box. He continues to amaze. Those were his first two touches.
Again, we piled the pressure on with neat overlaps and flicks from Somma on the right combining with Snoddy and Gradel with McCartney on the left. Somma's added presence further to Becchio clearly gave them problems as he was played the ball a couple of times in the box but closed down in a hurry. He did admirably with the ball played to his feet. Intelligently holding up then playing in Snoddy a couple of times, once with a back heel. Those who say he can't do this part of the game are wrong. He can, when fed anywhere lower than his head. He's no target man heading wise, but capable of hold up play when played into him with some construction.
Just as another head of steam was building for us, the lights went out again. Cue the guilty tannoy messages and chants of "Pay up Pompey"... The Leeds momentum had been building - There was a chance of note for Howson who forced a fine save from Ashdown after a first time, low strike from the edge of the box and Leeds were still giving the hope we'd seal another fantastic comeback smash and grab in the dying minutes. It was announced we had three minutes left. The referee felt no compulsion to let the Fratton Park lights have chance to "fail" again and played no extra time, annoyingly.
To sum up, frustrating. Lapses cost us. Floodlights cost us, after twice breaking up ominous momentum. In the end though its a point against a talented side, who are certainly capable. A pleasing point as well as we did managed to twice fight back from being behind. Just a shame we shot ourselves in the foot defensively for their second. We do need to pick up the pace, though, as the teams behind, most notably Forest with games in hand are beginning to look more than ominous. A tough set of games ahead for February after Hull a week on Tuesday. This next month will test our credentials.
What was pleasing to see was the effectiveness of Somma and Becchio combining after Somma had come on. Simon must be on the brink of considering starting Davide in a 4-4-2 again, as, if we're honest we've lacked the effectiveness of Howson in the hole, and until Kilkenny comes back we won't be seeing Howson there. 4-4-2 may be a good alternative with Davide unquestionably firing, and 4-5-1 seemingly not preventing the constant leak of goals. Watt and McCormack are certainly not as suited in terms of producing results playing just behind Becchio as Howson was a few weeks ago, so, for me, revert to 4-4-2 until Kilkenny/another capable midfielder we may bring in are in the squad. That way, we've also got two fresh, pacy wingers to come off the bench in Watt and Sam.
Again, we missed the strongest partnership we currently have at CB with O'Brien unable to partner Bruce, it did show - we weren't as assured as we have been at the back recently (despite still conceding goals). Obviously it can't help that Bromby's had little game time in this unit, so I'm willing to give Leigh a chance and time as, for me, the jury is firmly out on Collins.
Grayson:
"We were lucky to only be 1-0 down at half-time but in the second half we were much sharper, passed the ball better and created some good chances. We showed great character to keep coming back. We did not get going in the first half and, maybe, that was because of Wednesday night, but I did not want to use that as an excuse.
"They had the better of the first half and we had the better of the second so a draw was a fair result."
Support
Pompey gave as good account as anyone in the league we've come across in the way they backed their team. Leeds fans, as per, were excellent, bouncing for both goals and constantly noisy. The opening "we all love Leeds" I think it was, was lengthy and good to hear. Nice micky taking with the "Pay up Pompey" chants.
Man of the Match
Luciano. Goal and excellent link up play and assist for the second. That's why we miss him. Class act just now.
What an interview from a refreshingly down to earth, honest and genuine footballer, his feelings about the club and the city of Leeds in general are fantastic to hear and to hear what it's done for his family in particular is amazing. He shows a side the modern day footballer never usually does, the best interview of a Leeds player I've heard in recent times. This is a must listen.
"I'm from Manchester, Leeds is the best city I've ever lived in..."
"They said to me if you give 100% for the fans, they'll take that, and if it's not good enough they'll accept that... That's all I've ever tried to do for Leeds."
"I was so honoured to play for Leeds, my daughter's a Leeds fan and I'll be a Leeds fan forever... I'm honoured to have played for this club."
"What Leeds has done for me, my wife and my daughter, I can't thank the people of Leeds and the club itself (enough)."
"We're never going to leave Yorkshire, I'd love so much to come back to the club one day and help the club."
"Knowing you played in a team that for every other team you played against was their big game is something as a footballer I'll never experience (again)"
"This club has been the most amazing four years..."
"My wife knows how much it means to me, to come and say that I've played for Leeds United... alright it was a promotion from League One but to say I did something for Leeds United that I set out to do from the start, and to do it in front of these fans, home and away is the biggest honour... its up there with the birth of my daughter."
