Tomorrow's game has the ability to make the past two games seep from the memory, as well as the ability to show us what the sum of our efforts this season will come to. A win for Swansea would be a stake through the heart of a Leeds push for second, leaving us eight points adrift of them with at best a -6 goal difference. It would also mean, more worryingly, we could be holding onto a playoff spot by goal difference alone... As the run-in commences, we're starting to see the demands increase with us drawing games a little more than would be liked, and others picking up wins and form.
Luckily for us, our last two draws have not been disastrous. Leicester failed to capitalise, losing to Cardiff in midweek and Forest had a similar disappointment to ourselves in midweek, drawing at home with bottom side Preston. This has meant despite Leeds failing to win two games we should possibly have done, we're still in the pack - just in touch with second and clear of seventh. All this could change though with tomorrow's pivotal outing at the Liberty - a game which we can't lose if we are to keep any real hope of automatic promotion. Simon Grayson's YP interview revealed the boss has exactly the same thoughts on his mind -
“We know what’s at stake. It’s a big, big game – I think one of the deciding games of the season. We beat them early on and it was a great win. If we do that away from home, it’ll give us confidence to finish off the season.” The talk in the build up to this game has been surrounding who's going to come in, after Simon Grayson told us post match that he's looking to the loan market, possibly in time for the game on Saturday:
"It might be that something happens before the weekend, it might be that something happens next week. I'm looking at all our options."
As for anything actually happening, Grayson's latest comments aren't really encouraging and its a similar tone to what we heard in the January window:
“We’ve made a few enquiries and, as we stand, nothing’s come off,”
“It’s simply because clubs want to keep their best players."
“I could sign an average player and make us no better but I’ve got players in the squad who are ready and desperate to step into the team, whatever system I play. Any signing needs to be a really good player and I’m prepared to wait for one to become available.”
4-5-1 or 4-4-2 and who comes in for Johnson?
Onto the game then, and firstly the conundrum as to how we'll set up. We have seen Sanchez Watt used in behind Becchio at points this season, Scunny at home being the latest example and on Tuesday night he played as part of a midfield three with Gradel and Somma up top after Johnson's sending off. This would allow Simon to stick to a 4-5-1 with Kilkenny and Howson deeper. I would prefer this if we didn't manage to sneak a loanee in as the 4-4-2 with Howson and Kilkenny would be too lightweight and we'd be outrun in midfield with the likes of box to box Darren Pratley there to accelerate away from Kilkenny - who's better suited to playing as part of a three and lying deeper.
4-5-1 or 4-4-2 and who comes in for Johnson?
Onto the game then, and firstly the conundrum as to how we'll set up. We have seen Sanchez Watt used in behind Becchio at points this season, Scunny at home being the latest example and on Tuesday night he played as part of a midfield three with Gradel and Somma up top after Johnson's sending off. This would allow Simon to stick to a 4-5-1 with Kilkenny and Howson deeper. I would prefer this if we didn't manage to sneak a loanee in as the 4-4-2 with Howson and Kilkenny would be too lightweight and we'd be outrun in midfield with the likes of box to box Darren Pratley there to accelerate away from Kilkenny - who's better suited to playing as part of a three and lying deeper.
What Johnson's suspension has highlighted is how light we are in this department. We've no one to come off the bench and step in if a centre midfielder is tired or under performing - we're forced into 4-4-2 if that's the case and its often Kilkenny that comes off for Somma in that instance. We could really do with someone of sufficient quality to replace Howson, Johnson or Kilkenny directly when they become tired later in games or we need a change of impetus - which is why a loan signing is imperative. I don't believe Simon currently rates either Nunez or Clayton enough to fill in for any extended period of time.
Leeds Lapses
Arguably more importantly than how the side set up is their concentration. Leeds can't hope go to somewhere like Swansea and give them anything in the way of lapses and hope to follow the score one more than you policy, as has been enforced this season due to our, at times, suicidal defending. Swansea are known for being defensively imperious and have in fact only conceded six at home this season. Then again, being the league's top scorers we may be able to test that stat somewhat. Grayson knows it means, however, that there won't be points on offer if three goals or more are yet again required to get something from the game and will be looking for the players to iron out their "sloppy mistakes":
Leeds Lapses
Arguably more importantly than how the side set up is their concentration. Leeds can't hope go to somewhere like Swansea and give them anything in the way of lapses and hope to follow the score one more than you policy, as has been enforced this season due to our, at times, suicidal defending. Swansea are known for being defensively imperious and have in fact only conceded six at home this season. Then again, being the league's top scorers we may be able to test that stat somewhat. Grayson knows it means, however, that there won't be points on offer if three goals or more are yet again required to get something from the game and will be looking for the players to iron out their "sloppy mistakes":
“It’s frustrating because, when I look on the performances against Norwich and Barnsley, we probably deserved six points out of six. The players are frustrated with themselves and they’re frustrated with the sloppy goals they gave away but that shouldn’t detract from the way they performed.”
Accountability
What I'll be looking for tomorrow, aside from the result, is an accountability from defenders and the team as a whole and a willingness to work together to help iron out these errors. A shouter is what we seem to need and hopefully they'll get in each others ears if they lose their man or find themselves out of position. I don't think I can stand seeing McCartney skulk back to half way again with an expressionless face and slumped shoulders after any goal conceded. A little more passion and professional pride is definitely in order for some as the amount of goals conceded as a unit this season surely has to hurt. It's not just the back line, as Snoddy left Hill for their second on Tuesday - no one can switch off and the players have the capability and now have to help each other in a bid to achieve what their ability should tell us they're capable of - and that's becoming more solid defensively.
Swansea
Accountability
What I'll be looking for tomorrow, aside from the result, is an accountability from defenders and the team as a whole and a willingness to work together to help iron out these errors. A shouter is what we seem to need and hopefully they'll get in each others ears if they lose their man or find themselves out of position. I don't think I can stand seeing McCartney skulk back to half way again with an expressionless face and slumped shoulders after any goal conceded. A little more passion and professional pride is definitely in order for some as the amount of goals conceded as a unit this season surely has to hurt. It's not just the back line, as Snoddy left Hill for their second on Tuesday - no one can switch off and the players have the capability and now have to help each other in a bid to achieve what their ability should tell us they're capable of - and that's becoming more solid defensively.
Swansea's form has seen them unbeaten in the last seven since losing to Cardiff, undeservedly, at the hands of a piece of Bellamy class. This is the same run as Leeds are currently on except they have managed to win each of their last three. Of the last 18 points on offer Swansea have managed to gain 13, making them the second placed team in the form table, behind flying Leicester City. The last time I watched them play was the Cardiff game and they deserved at least a point. For long spells they managed to dominate possession and carve out a few gilt edged chances. Leeds are going to the Liberty at a tough time as far as Swansea's form goes, it is not going to be easy.
Brendan Rodgers comes from a similar school of footballing philosophy as Simon Grayson does - preferring to go for the three points and exploit teams chasing games: "I've always been one that, even if you're winning the game and people might expect you to put on a defender, I'll put on a striker because the spaces open up". This has resulted in them drawing only five games this season, combined with their more solid defence they've found the gung-ho method does them proud. This could be encouraging for us to possibly steal something from the game in the later stages, if Rodgers doesn't deem a draw satisfactory. We have the players to unlock any defence in the league and if Swansea choose to play that game, we can make them pay. Rodgers will be just as aware of our prolific scoring record as our defensive frailties.
Danger Men
Top scorer Scott Sinclair will be a huge threat for us tomorrow. His pace and trickery will be worrying throughout and his 14 goals speak for themselves. Space can't be afforded to him during the game and our defence has to be well shielded to any runs he may make with the ball directly at them. Ever willing midfielder Pratley will also be one to watch. Grayson apparently had his sights set on Darren in the January window with him being out of contract in the summer, and will surely know the qualities he'll bring to Swansea's side. Being a box to box player, he'll have to be tracked on any forays forward he makes as he has the capability to punish a side on the break with his athleticism. Nathan Dyer also has the ability to make the game a nightmare for Leeds' under-the-microscope left back, George McCartney. Also being a speed merchant, McCartney will be required to be on top of his defensive game.
Earlier this season...
Leeds did manage an impressive win, coming from behind against them at Elland Road in the reverse fixture in September. It was an encouraging display but it was a game either side could have won, with both striking the woodwork and chances aplenty. Stephen Dobbie got their goal early on against the run of play whilst Johnson and Becchio put Leeds ahead midway through the second half.
Prediction: Swansea 3-1 Leeds
I couldn't be more pessimistic about this game given the last two I've witnessed - 4 extra points thrown away from what should have been deserved wins. Any optimism I had about our defence ironing out lapses has been drained from me until further notice and I can see Scott Sinclair causing all sorts of issues with his pace and undoubted quality. We need to be on top of our game to avoid only our third loss in what would be a 22 game run that's seen us take more points than any since October. Swansea's current form also dents my confidence, despite our impressive attacking display against fellow challengers Norwich. We do have the ability to cause them all manner of problems but it's not our productiveness up the field though that we're all worried about... Further back down the pitch we're error prone and currently worrying, possibly even more so for this crucial game, with the now integral Johnson missing.
I have no doubts Simon will play in an attacking way, there's very little chance of us going there to try and sit on a 0-1 or park the bus for a draw. If we can get a result here, which can happen if we're "on our day" defensively don't get me wrong, then it'll be a nice boost for the start of the run-in. If they prove they're capable here, with Swansea's current form, they should be capable anywhere and against anyone in this division.
I have no doubts Simon will play in an attacking way, there's very little chance of us going there to try and sit on a 0-1 or park the bus for a draw. If we can get a result here, which can happen if we're "on our day" defensively don't get me wrong, then it'll be a nice boost for the start of the run-in. If they prove they're capable here, with Swansea's current form, they should be capable anywhere and against anyone in this division.
Team News
Swansea
Defender Garry Monk (knee) and winger Andrea Orlandi (thight) miss out through injury.
Striker Stephen Dobbie could make a start after coming from the bench against Coventry in midweek to net their winner. He was the man who scored against us in a one-on-one with Higgs at Elland Road earlier this season.
Leeds
Johnson misses out due to a one game ban after a soft second yellow on Tuesday night courtesy of the Premier League's Mark Clattenburg.
Connolly still out with a hamstring issue.
Somma could be in line to start in Johnson's place, if Simon deems our centre midfield two strong enough, whoever they may be tomorrow depending on any (unlikely) loans.
4-5-1 with Watt in the hole and Howson in Johnson's role is my personal bet.
Grayson
Simon wants Leeds to show what they're all about in front of a packed Liberty Stadium and the TV cameras:
"It's a big game, but they are all big ones,"
"It's a big game, but they are all big ones,"
"We know what Swansea are all about. They are good footballers, have a good home record, and it's a great occasion for us to try and get a result and show people what we're about.
"Hopefully people aren't doubting us. We're in the shake-up. We've lost one game in 20 and to do that shows we have good players and that we're playing with confidence. Hopefully we can maintain that for the next 13 games.
"All we can do is concentrate on what we are going to do, and hopefully that will be three points on Saturday to take into Doncaster."
"All we can do is concentrate on what we are going to do, and hopefully that will be three points on Saturday to take into Doncaster."
Grayson also believes he and the squad can draw on last seasons experience and Swansea are the team under pressure, as we were at the back end of last season:
"We know what it's like to be shot at — as we were last season — and with Swansea going up to second place after winning in midweek, they are the team now that's in that position,"
"We've got 13 games to go to make sure we get in the top six. Swansea are our promotion rivals and it's a game we're looking forward to and will be ready for.
"As a club and a group we can draw on the lessons we learned from last season.
"We saw the teams come from behind us last season when maybe there was less pressure on them, and that's a similar situation to us now.
"I'm not sure how many people expected us to be here at this stage of the season and because of that the pressure maybe isn't as a great on us as it is on some of the other sides around."
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